The Claim:
Another video claims that getting a booster if you’ve already had COVID will not lower your risk of dying.
The Facts:
The video, looking at this study, concluded that a fourth dose of COVID vaccine will not reduce your chances of dying from COVID, but is missing several key factors.
First off, the data doesn’t actually show what you might think. When we look at the risk of dying from COVID after getting a fourth vaccine dose, the odds are pretty much the same as not getting it (the risk ratio is close to 1, which indicates no real change). But with statistics, there’s always a bit of uncertainty. This uncertainty is represented by a 95% confidence interval, which in this case ranges from 0.7 to 2.2 for people who got four doses compared to three. This wide range means we can’t really say for sure what the actual risk is. Just because this range includes the number 1, it doesn’t mean there’s no difference between the groups; it just means this particular data doesn’t clearly tell us if the fourth dose is better, worse, or the same.
Next, according to the paper, the authors started pulling data on October 1st. At that time, people who had received the fourth dose had received it anywhere from 19 days prior to 69 days prior. One problem with the data was that the updated bivalent booster wasn’t authorized or available until September 12, meaning that a number of people who had received a fourth dose had received a dose known to an older, less effective vaccine. If you’re trying to prove that the vaccine isn’t effective, it’s not fair to use information about an older vaccine that we know isn’t as good as the latest one available.
Lastly, not many people in the study actually died, and the authors didn’t look at other health problems the participants might have had. The people who got four shots were on average 63 years old, and those who got three shots were around 44 years old. Since older people are at higher risk of dying, the study should have taken into consideration participant age and health.
Meanwhile, there are other studies in other countries that demonstrate the effectiveness of a fourth dose.
Disclaimer: Science is always evolving and our understanding of these topics may have evolved too since this was originally posted. Be sure to check out our most recent posts and browse the latest Just the Facts Topics for the latest.
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