The Claim:
An Australian senator claims that the Australian people were deceived into believing that mRNA vaccinations would protect them from COVID-19, and claims that data now shows that vaccinated Australians are more vulnerable to the virus than unvaccinated Australians.
The Facts:
As we’ve pointed out, it’s important to look closely at the data used to support claims like this one. In this case, the data doesn’t show what this senator thinks that it shows. Our senator’s claims fall into the base-rate fallacy. In this case, the base-rate fallacy occurs when you ignore the probability that someone is vaccinated in the first place. For example, in Australia, over 97.5% of people 16+ have had at least one dose of COVID vaccine.
The senator is comparing raw numbers of COVID cases rather than looking at the rate of COVID infection by vaccine status. If you look at the raw infection numbers, it does appear that there are more cases in the vaccinated population than in the unvaccinated population. But if you look at the data showing the rate of infection, it is quite clear that you are much more likely to get COVID if you are unvaccinated. This page shows the number of cases and hospitalizations in Australia by vaccine status. The top half of the page tracks the rate of COVID infection relative to the number of vaccine doses received, showing that the more vaccine doses received, the less likely an Australian was to be infected with COVID.
Disclaimer: Science is always evolving and our understanding of these topics may have evolved since this was originally posted. Browse the latest information posted in Just the Facts Topics.
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