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Who is most likely to die from COVID?

The Claim:

A long Tweet thread claims that because of flaws in electronic health records, public health officials do not know who has been vaccinated, so they have no way of claiming that unvaccinated people are more likely to die from COVID.

The Facts:

The main point here is that we can’t just assume all people with “unknown” vaccination status in studies are unvaccinated.

In one study, 44% of the “unknowns” were actually vaccinated, so it’s not accurate to think that “unknowns” automatically mean they’re all unvaccinated. The data even shows that “unknowns” have higher COVID rates than those who are confirmed to be vaccinated.

This statistic suggests that vaccines do help protect against COVID because the part of the “unknown” group that got vaccinated is likely lowering the overall COVID rates in that group. So, if more than half of the “unknowns” might not be vaccinated and their COVID rates are still high, it means the unvaccinated people could be getting COVID even more than the numbers show.

We know that more people died in places where fewer were vaccinated. In the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, when vaccines became widely available, this study showed that while large metropolitan areas saw a significant reduction in deaths, rural counties in the U.S. experienced more excess deaths due to challenges in vaccine access, higher vaccine skepticism, and healthcare limitations.

Disclaimer: Science is always evolving and our understanding of these topics may have evolved since this was originally posted. Browse the latest information posted in Just the Facts Topics.

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